It’s the end of the world (as we know it): Three Big Trends for 2023
Each December, The Super Age makes predictions for the coming year, which are based on a review of hard data, emerging tastes and trends, as well as historical behaviors. The team utilizes the same proprietary methodology that applies across our consulting and inclusive design practices.
In 2021, The Super Age predicted that this would be a tumultuous one for employers as the mismatch of supply and demand for labor continued. We noted that the return of the older workers and the “unretired” would be a hallmark of the labor market, as well as improved compensation and benefits for workers of all ages, which was the case in the last half of 2022.
In addition, we delved into the emerging trend of inclusive design, which is showing up in consumer products, durable goods, and the built environment; a number of homeowners are going so far as to "future proof" their homes. We even weighed-in on the metaverse, which, despite some false starts from companies like Meta, is already transforming health care and social inclusion around the world.
The Super Age believes that these trends will continue into 2023, despite the threat of recession, which is typically when companies shed staff and pull-back on capital expenditures and investments in research, development, deployment of new innovations.
For 2023, we’ve gone a bit bigger and included some global trends that will hit in the “post-pandemic world.” It’s going to be a transformative year for all of us, and the end of the world as we know it.
The "Asian Century" ends, and Africa's ascent begins
This will be a watershed year in global demographics, since a number of countries, which include many of the largest economies, will begin or hasten their march towards becoming super aged nations. Others will witness population decline, while a handful will have exponential growth.
The biggest change will likely come from China, which may experience a “winter wave” of upward of 1 million covid deaths, and lose the top spot as the world’s most populous country to India. China’s total population is likely to shrink by 100 million people over the next 25 years, and drop below 1 billion people by the end of this century.
Other countries across the APAC region are experiencing declines in their population too, thanks to doggedly low birth rates and next to zero immigration. Japan lost a population the size of Las Vegas this year; this will continue unabated for the foreseeable future. We’re witnessing the end of the Asian Century, and the beginning of the African one.
The continent of Africa has been emerging for some time, since it is one of the few places in the world with high birth rates and exponential population growth. The most notable capital investments in this region have come from the agriculture, energy, finance sectors and include companies like PepsiCo, GE, and Ernst & Young Global Consulting Services, to name a few. However, it has also captured the eye of the youth-obsessed luxury goods makers recently too.
Major fashion houses, like LVMH, which are often a bellwether for wealth and economic growth, as well as economic status symbols, have been slowly but surely courting this growing market by engaging locals and the diaspora alike. However, it wasn’t until CHANEL hosted its Métiers d’Art show in Dakar, Senegal in December 2022 that the possibilities came into clear view; Africa is on the ascent.
The rise of Africa is further underscored by key investments from large national economies, as well as noted public engagements with leading governments. The most visible has been the recent United Kingdom state visit of South African President Cyril Ramposa in November, which was first under the reign of King Charles III. However, leaders from across the African continent and the United States are convening in Washington this week to discuss economic engagement, peace, security, and good governance too.
The return of older workers and the advance of artificial intelligence
A hallmark of the coming year will be the continued inclusion of older and disabled individuals in the workforce, despite the threat of recession. This shift is largely due to the mismatch of supply and demand of labor, which is due to decreased birth rates and excess retirements that occurred during the pandemic; too many people left the labor market and too few entered.
Older and disabled workers made notable employment gains during the last three months of September, October, and November, as we predicted. Some organizations have gone so far as to call this the “Great Unretirement” while some nations now see these historically marginalized groups as a key to their economic survival.
Bringing in new groups of people to the workforce, while retaining the ones that already in place is no small feat. Businesses should anticipate increased competition for workers in 2023, as well as the development of inclusive benefits, working arrangements, and workplaces that are responsive to the needs of all workers, regardless of age or ability. A growing number of industries will need to leverage technology to help fill the labor gap too.
One new artificial intelligence that may be used is called ChatGPT, and it is unlike anything we've ever seen, since it has the potential to disrupt or destroy the knowledge economy. ChatGPT works when users type a question or a task into the search function, and the software responds with an answer that mimics a human response. It was trained using billions of examples of text across the Internet, but its understanding of natural human language that sets it apart.
We strongly recommend that individuals and organizations across all industries take note of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence from here onward. This technology will likely make the advent of the Internet look like child’s play, because rather than streaming information, it streams human intelligence. The only jobs and industries that may be spared in the long-term are human-centric trades.
The rise of the inclusive economy
Countries with low birth rates and rapidly aging populations have no choice but to be inclusive of people of all ages and abilities. This is essential for maintaining a resilient and growing economy, but also for improving social cohesion and continuing progress. Smart companies are moving away from chasing the “youth market” or the “longevity economy” and zeroing in on the “inclusive economy.”
Up until now, nations have largely relied on legal and regulatory frameworks to ensure that historically marginalized populations have the ability to participate in social and economic life. These have ranged from anti-discrimination measures to building codes. However, these often fall short of intended goals and leave many people behind.
In the United States, age-discrimination is legally prohibited, yet it is notoriously difficult to prove. The regulatory framework which governs accessibility in public spaces, is woefully outdated, inadequate, and lacking consideration of intersection of disabilities. For example, a wheelchair user who is low vision, but not blind, may not be able to use many public spaces because lighting standards have not kept-up with the times.
Businesses, like Apple, are already filling the gap left by the government by leveraging inclusive design in their products and service design. Their approach considers the wide range of disability of its consumers by implementing functionality across all of its beautifully designed products. Apple is leaning into the inclusive economy because of its sheer size. They’re even going so far as to show disabled users in their advertisements, which is nothing short of revolutionary.
Employers across all industries will begin leveraging inclusive design in compensation and benefits strategies, working arrangements (e.g. hybrid, remote), and workspace design that goes beyond the minimum regulatory requirements and considers the full range of disability in the areas of mobility, vision, hearing, strength and dexterity, and neurodiversity and cognition. This is one way that they will counter the current and historically tight labor market and win the fight for talent.
Other organizations with retail and hospitality environments will consider how they can apply inclusive design to their business. They will leverage solutions in brick-and-mortar, as well as digital spaces, so they can capture a greater number of consumers and improve the overall customer experience
If you'd like to learn more about how to leverage strategic foresight for your business or organization, please schedule a consultation. If you'd like to get a primer on our demographic future, please pick-up a copy of The Super Age: Decoding our Demographic Destiny today.
